Why such a slow start to the hurricane season?
Aug 15, 2010
in
Hurricane
It was predicted to be an above average year but so far there has been only one hurricane and a few depressions/storms. Also, the waters are supposed to be really warm and LA NINA is developing. All this should be great for hurricane formation. Why such a slow start?
Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!
5 comments
Julian on August 15, 2010 at 9:19 pm
I’ve doubted the pre-season forecasts of ±20 named storms since their issuance, and as the season progresses, I think it’s clear the 2010 season won’t compare to more active seasons like 2005 and 1998 as suggested this spring. To achieve 20 named storms, we would need abnormally high activity in all three segments of the hurricane season; early-season, mid-season, and late-season, and, Hurricane Alex notwithstanding, the early-season this year has proven relatively benign. Conditions over the Atlantic have been rather hostile for tropical cyclone formation and sustenance over the past couple months, in some cases to the surprise of hurricane specialists and forecasters.
I’ll freely admit that I think the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts will bust. And that’s to be expected when dealing with such a sensitive and ever-changing branch of science as meteorology. However, we should by no means let our guard down. It only takes one or two storms to establish a season in the record books, as evidenced by 1992 – if not for the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew, that season would be known as one of the most insignificant in recent memory. Aside from Andrew, only one other storm made landfall.
Additionally, tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic usually picks up toward the middle of August, when a number of factors converge to create more conducive conditions for tropical development. Among them are a decrease in dry air and an increase in the vigor of tropical waves (elongated areas of low pressure) emerging from the African coast. Several dozen of these waves develop each year, and during the peak of hurricane season, they’ll occasionally begin to spin up as they move westward, eventually maturing into intense hurricanes.
It’s wise to keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center’s website (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) for the next couple months, so you’ll be informed of any disturbances or storms in the Atlantic. Tropical cyclones in this basin almost exclusively move westward in the beginning of their lives, so the United States is ever-vulnerable to landfalls or near-misses. It’s probable at least a couple more storms will make landfall, causing some degree of damage. Keep in mind that the end number of storms is not nearly as important as the number of storms to affect land or the number of storms to cause significant damage. If we discount minor depressions and storms that barely managed to limp across land, we’re left with only one storm so far. However, that storm (Alex) caused billions of dollars in damage, and is a candidate for retirement next spring.
UALog on August 15, 2010 at 9:19 pm
The wind shear environment has made it difficult for tropical systems from forming. If they did form, the shear has kept them relatively weak. The current thinking among the tropical storm experts is that with the rapid development of the La Nina will decrease the shear environment and will make conditions more favorable to tropical development for the second half of the season.
Even though the sea surface temperature was not as warm as what the experts had expected, it is still warm enough to support development. So if the tmosphere can lose some of the shear, things can quickly chane in a heart beat. Whether this will really happen is still the big question.
Todd on August 15, 2010 at 9:19 pm
The condition just haven’t been favorable for development. The Saharan Dust cloud has helped to keep the water temperature down some (this is now starting to abate), as has the solar minimum. The few that have formed have had short life spans wind shear, and in the case of the last two storms (Colin and TD 5), also due to entraining dry air, and being near an upper level low pressure system (tropical cyclones need an over head high to develop and sustain themselves).
Vostok on August 15, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Yeah it is a slow season but some scientist and meteorologists say the season is going to be as active as 2005 when Hurricane Katrina made landfall!
Phil on August 16, 2010 at 7:02 pm
I am a past meteorologist who changed jobs many years ago, my focus was tropical mets. I worked with the us navy and other government outlets. anyway. this year is not going to be the big year as most have been fearing. for one the big thing is we are over half way thru august. No signs of anything look likely thru the next week or so at least anything BIG. The storms are being influenced by a lot of very hot dry air that has been influencing the mid sections of the county and even the east. The storms like warm and humid not hot and dry. Also very little action has moved off the african coast. And with every tropical system this year except for alex in june, the storms have been ripped away by high altitude winds that do not allow a surfACE circulation to get going. Its much like last years situations. The biggest change is we are in a la nina period insead of a neutral going to an el nino period like last summer. For now the biggest thing we have going for us is if we do get a storm to develop and move into the florida area or gulf the water temps are about as warm as they have ever been in decades. most water temps in the gulf are in the upper 80′s to near or even over 90. that will support a category 5 storm and keep it going. the only problem will be is will the upper air currents be supportive to the development of strong hurricanes. Over the next 6 weeks i feel we will see some storms form off the coast of africa and turn north ward into the atlantic far away from any land. There is a chance of one or two bigger or major storms to impact the usa coast line and it only takes one big one to be a bad year. In my opinion this will not be a 2004 or 2005 year. What you will see happen soon is the NWS and NHC will be lowering its forecast for hurricanes soon!! Believe me if nothing gets going by the end of august the year will be just average and nothing more than that….all the hooplah was being that it would be an la nina year and the very warm waters in the atlantic and gulf of mexico….. but there are so many upper air variables and dry air that is crusing the high hopes for an above average hurricane year…..OF COURSE TIME WILL TELL!!! lets see how the next 6 to 8 weeks go as the season winds down by then. My forecast is that we will probably get to the letter “I” or “J” storms this year but I dont foresee it going above storm letter “L” which would be just a normal year!!! and of course a couple of no named ones in between. I do feel there is a good chance of a landfalling hurricane in the mid-atlantic region (from NC to NJ) this year and or possibly into the NE states. I think also another one or two may threaten Florida and the GOM near florida. I think Texas and LA may be off the hook…lets see…PHIL.