Why is every hurricane season going to be the worst ever?
Apr 17, 2010
in
Hurricane
Ever since 2004 and Katrina these idiot Meteorologist predict a busy hurricane season, I think they are buying into the global catastrophe theories that the Discovery channel is burning out. I want a job where I make 100000. a year, wrong 90% of the time and still don’t get fired.
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7 comments
meteorologyfanatic on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
a) katrina was in 2005, not 2004. 2004 saw frances, ivan and charley (the worst hurricane to hit florida since andrew in 1992, i think it was 1992 anyway)
b) meteorology is a very hard field of science to study, as it does involve predicting the future. fancy doing that on a day to day basis and never making a mistake? people make mistakes, it’s nigh on impossible to predict weather so far in advance, and the things meteorologists base the predictions on, they have valid reasons for doing, but these things are liable to change, and a weather condidtion across the other side of the world, 6 months away from the main hurricane season, could affect how it will turn out.
c) the fact is, hurricane seasons are getting ‘busier’ and hurricanes are getting stronger as the years pass, and meteorologists are perfectly within their rights to predict this. a lot of research goes into this 24/7 across the globe, they don’t just make it up on the spot, global warming and natural disasters are of utmost priority across the globe (obvs) currently, and the situations are not taken lightly.
d) i recently wrote a 64 ( i had to have a limit, which i overstepped by…a lot) page report on how hurricanes have intensified over the past couple of hundred years, and how the number of hurricanes (and major hurricanes) has changed and increased, and also how different factors such as el nino, the sunspot cycle, thermohaline circulation, and climate change, affect the number and strength of hurricanes, particularly in the atlantic.
e) i believe that people should have the courtesty to at least do some research into the topic they are asking the question about, and appreciate the difficulty of the science they choose to insult, before going about saying that it is all made up and wrong 90% of the time. these theories aren’t made up on a whim, there is serious scientific evidence to back it up, and it would be foolish to think that the people predicting the hurricanes and hurricane season take the matter lightly, when the fact is that thousands of lives are in their hands every year.
f) just food for thought here… how many thousands or millions more lives do you think would have been lost if it weren’t for meteorologists forecasting hurricanes and sending out warnings for where they will make landfall, and where the path will lead, therefore allowing time for efficient evacuation of the areas to be hit the worst?
Robin B on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
They’ve really no idea! Every year brings a ‘busy’ hurricane season although not that many ever make landfall and when they do these ‘ex-spurts’ get it wrong.
Problem is that statistically, you’ll never get rich from honest employment. (e.g. show me a millionaire and I’ll show you a rogue)
TorxBit on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Well first off weather prediction is game of odds. That is to say all the variables are considered and then compared to past examples. If if it rained 4 times out of 10 examples you will get a weather prediction of a 40% chance of rain. Using this kind of model is is very difficult to make point predictions. In fact it is an enormous feet just to get the accuracy of a 3 day forecast. The farther you get out from point the less accurate it gets (which is why 5 days is about the limit on our current weather predictions). This is how most of the weather you see gets predicted.
On the other hand weather in and of itself can be pretty well predicted on a macro scale. In Pacific ocean, around the equator, called El Nino and La Nina. These currents effect trade winds and the ocean movements which are a major contributing factor to the majority of our weather. From these phenomena weather trends can be predicted (such as more annual rain fall or more prevalent drought). It is a far cry from saying there will be X number more or less hurricanes but they can so there will be a trend in either way.
stl_luna_7 on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
I heard the forecasts back then after 2005 when Katrina happened and it seemed that calling for more and more severe hurricane seasons were in fashion. Then they almost stopped. A fear new misses and then virtually nothing. It was almost as if it stopped here and moved over to the Pacific Rim. Major Typhoons were assaulting the Philippines and Japan.
Whenever there is El Nino over the Atlantic the thinking is that vertical wind sheer prohibits any sustained development of these Hurricanes and sheer does affect it. Being in the field of meteorology for over 30 years, I am dubious of long range Hurricane forecasts.
Too many things can happen in a relatively short period of time. Ironically one of the guys who called for the hurricanes is actually not a big believer in climate change but just look at our last season over the southern and easter US. Major snow storms, one right after another.
TraV on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Why don’t you go on the weather channel then and show them how it is done. Predict a perfect hurricane season. Predict how many hurricanes there will be, how many major hurricanes, and how many will hit land. It’a an easy job. Meterologists just love taking their job for granted. Don’t ask these kinds of questions until you understand the difficulty behind it.
bdloving on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
>> I want a job where I make 100000. a year, wrong 90% of the time and still don’t get fired.
Become a Politician then.
Kelli R on April 17, 2010 at 9:19 pm
meteorologists can only predict based on weather patterns & circumstances. to put it simply, it is like taking a few health symptoms and trying to figure out a diagnosis. sometimes, it is difficult to do with the information that is available. the best way to predict or to know is actually go to the hurricane center at this website, they give up to the date hurricane updates and unlike local meteorolgists who are specifically in an area, these guys know hurricanes because it is all they do. good luck! love, kelli
http://www.squidoo.com/hurricane-and-tsunami-updates